There are several adages that involve change. It's supposed to be the universal answer to all philosophical probing of the cosmos, e.g., change is the only constant. Remember the not-so-bright king whose philosophers came up with an answer for responding to any statement or question?—“this too will change.”
But there's only one change adage that seems to work for the pulp and paper industry, i.e., the more things change, the more they stay the same. I first heard that saying (which doesn't really qualify for adage-hood because it doesn't make sense) in the fifties, and still hear it today, in 03 a.s.o. (after Space Odyssey).
Entering 2004, the long-suffering North American pulp and paper industry awaits an elusive economic recovery that hopefully will bring some much-needed change to both its producer and supplier sides. But will that change, if it does in fact happen, prove to be of the “stay the same” type—again?
Just as it was last year at this time, and the year before, and the year before that, the U.S. economy seems to be improving. All economic indicators are in positive territory. The jobless rate is down (sort of). Consumer confidence—and spending—are up (now and then). Housing starts are on the rise (here and there). Etc. Etc.
Whether this year will be any different really won't be known until sometime in 2005. However, there does seem to be a little something positive in the air these beginning months of the year that wasn't there in 2001, 2002, and 2003. Where it might lead, or whether it might fizzle as usual, remains a mystery (or an illusion) at this time.
However, at the risk of laughter and ridicule, I predict that by the end of the third quarter this year, the North American paper industry will be firmly into the early stages of a significant recovery cycle. There might not be any dancing in the streets just yet, but there should be a few more smiles here and there This comes from a (normally) practiced believer in the power of negative thinking.
Same Old Same Olds
On the subject of same old same olds, it's heartwarming to see that the U.S. EPA has again taken up the gauntlet for protecting the nation's waters from mercury contamination. Mercury's been getting some renewed press lately, and should reassume its rightful position as a designer pollutant sometime this year, if and when the Saddam/Michael/Kobe/Scott news clatter subsides.
Haven't we crossed the mercury contamination bridge several times before—in the 1960s and 1970s? When mercury-phobia was at its peak in the mid-60s, seafood consumption literally bottomed out around the world. I remember a cartoon that showed a man checking an outdoor thermometer on his porch—a fish graduated in degrees F.
EPA says that mercury pollution today primarily comes from coal-burning power plants (previously not regulated by the government), which maybe gets most chemical companies (big time culprits in the 60s) off the hook, but not the paper industry. I'm not sure how much coal is currently being burned in paper industry power plants, or what quality it is, but rest assured it's enough to create some environmental noise
Lost in all of the noise, as usual, will be the fact that pulp and paper mills have reduced fossil fuel and purchased energy use per unit of production by 38% since 1972 (AF&PA figures). Also, energy produced at paper mills from renewable resources (biomass, black liquor, hydroelectric, etc.) increased from 40% in 1972 to 56% in 2000, and is nearing an estimated 60% today. With some promising, rapidly-maturing gasification technology installed, the industry could move within a single-digit percentage of energy self-reliance in the fairly near future, removing it from the mercury pollution arena all together.
There is a bright spot in the EPA's plan to better control mercury pollution from coal fired boiler emissions. It reportedly will give existing plants up to 15 years to implement new technologies needed to reduce mercury pollution. Considering the industry's track record since 2000, how many U.S. pulp and paper mills in operation today will still be operating 15 years from now, anyway?
